27.05.21

Analysis of top-100 coin behaviour during and after the market crash (part 2)

We examined the dynamics of top-100 cryptocurrencies throughout the correction period, which began with notable price declines on May 19, turning into full-scale correction between May 19-23, during which most coins hit a second low.

The May 19 Contraction

The dynamics of two periods were examined:

  • the day following the contraction (May 20)
  • the following 7 days (May 20-26)

Coins fell by 51.43% on average.
TEL saw the biggest decline (77.78%), and CEL saw the smallest (22%).

Generally, coins that see the biggest losses are most likely to experience the largest rebounds on the following day. Overlaps are highlighted in blue.

A week later, the list changed, but negligibly: one coin (OKB) left the list and those that had seen some of the biggest losses entered. One fact nevertheless stands out: all coins on the list fell by a magnitude exceeding the top-100 average (51.43%).

It is also worth mentioning the lack of dependence of growth on coin value. Outliers, or anomalously high numbers (compared to the rest), strongly influence the average. If we exclude the “heavyweights” YFI, BTC and MKR, the average coin price becomes $87. Our top-10 tokens are likely to lie below that number.

Price declines between May 19-23

On average, the coins lost 56.04% of their value.
Luna saw the biggest decline (75.68%), and CEL saw the smallest (20%).

Below is a comparison of coins that showed the highest losses on the first day of correction and of all time. There are no overlaps. It seems that a heavy decline in the first wave of correction does not necessarily mean that coins will continue losing their value.

Yet again, the coins that saw the steepest declines demonstrated the sharpest rebounds. This is most likely a purely impulsive movement not based on any fundamental indicators.

As in the first case, the coins that saw a greater decline than the market average (56.04%) made the top-10 list of rebounds.

UNI is a notable standout, demonstrating high growth despite not declining a second time.

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